Its been a few months of good (or rather better) news on the employment front – the employment situation being a lagging indicator implies that the economy is on the mend and has been so for a few months. So what is the divergence then? See here below:
This is the Baltic Dry Index (BDI). You can see the steady build up that kicks off in August 2011 and continues till about Nov 2011. After that, it drops precipitously going into 2012. Now isn’t that a puzzling divergence? Well, it isn’t if you think that the general economy is going to tank again but can you really say that with today’s picture, today’s expectation – rosy getting rosier?
Well, at the very least I get to check whether the BDI is any good as an indicator?
Here’s wishing all of you and yours a Happy New Year – an exciting and fun-filled year ahead. Over the break, I’ve been doing some hard thinking about the direction of my life, career and blog. So I’m done with the thinking and now comes the execution – I’ll be making some changes to the blog and my life trajectory (and believe me this is going to come out of left field).
I’m still going to be blogging about the supply chain but I’m expanding my focus to the enterprise as a whole but a specific part of the enterprise that is undergoing a lot of exciting changes.
More of that to come in the days ahead…
I thought that I’d pass on to my readers a free guide (no registration required, no cookies taken, just click and read – doesn’t get better than that, does it?) on Spend Analysis made available by Michael at Sourcing Innovation.
Spend Visibility : An Implementation Guide
Have a great rest of the year…
Periodically, I revisit the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) from time to time to get a read on economic activity as read from the volume of shipping contracted across the world. The following is a 3-year chart from 2009 onwards.
As you can see, the stimulus lead spurt of activity also reflected in the economy starting in early 2009 that began to peter out at the beginning of 2011. Then starting from August 2011, the index records a slight improvement in activity but nothing to write home about. While it is early to rule in an oncoming recession, it would take only the slightest worsening of the crisis in Europe to send all the economies of the world reeling once again.
No good news here. But as long as there’s no terrible news either, we slink on.
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Steve Jobs has passed on. Now the vagaries of time lay siege to those he pulled together. Now cometh the Apple test. To me, he has been an immense source of inspiration (and his pithy quotes only fuel the fire). My response to such inspiration is to be an entrepreneur and it is coming…
Apple’s succession story has been in the news lately – or rather a story made necessary by Steve Job’s health situation. In this article on CNET : Apply supply chain sees smooth sailing ahead, the new head of Apple – Tim Cook, is reputedly a supply chain pro. In one sense, that’s a great thing but then I take a step back and ask myself : Is that what Apple really is?
I don’t think of Apple as a supply chain company with great products but a company with great products that has honed its supply chain quite well.
There is one quote from a Jeffries Analyst that speaks to the supply chain management voodoo at Apple:
"Even with the unfortunate events in Japan around the time of the iPad 2 release, Tim Cook was able to double or sometimes triple source component suppliers. To date, no competitor has been able to gain meaningful share in the tablet market; and, in our view, Cook’s leadership during the introduction was critical to this."
Perhaps, we will see Tim Cook elevate the next avatar of Steve Jobs from within Apple’s ranks that puts the key competitive advantage of Apple front and center. That would be “Giving people what they didn’t even know that they needed”.
Not easy but necessary.
