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Logistics costs under pressure

Logistics Management highlights from their 17th Annual State of Logistics report a finding that rising prices and interest rates will soon push logistics costs above 10% of GDP. They refer to a report written by economist Rosalyn A. Wilson for the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP) that places logistics expenditures at 9.5% of GDP.

That’s a sharp departure from the three previous years, when those costs ranged between 8.6 and 8.8 percent of GDP (see Figure 1). And it’s perilously close to the 10 percent mark, a long-accepted demarcation separating reasonable and exorbitant cost levels.

Among the factors contributing to this precarious situation are:

One factor is the steady climb in interest rates, which has pushed up inventory-carrying costs. But the biggest cost driver has been rising transportation expenses, which reached $744 billion in 2005, up from $636 billion in 2004. Soaring fuel prices, a driver shortage, and diminished competition have all come together to raise rates across all modes, and for trucking in particular.

The article explains briefly how the value of logistics relative to overall economic activity is calculated:

That formula adds together three components: inventory-carrying costs, transportation costs, and administrative costs. This year Wilson calculated total logistics costs for 2005 at $1.183 trillion, a 15.2 percent hike over the previous year’s total.

The article also offers a snapshot of the US Logistics Market in 2005. That snapshot shows that Transportation costs have the lion share of Total Logistics costs in the US and the major issues there are driver shortages, tight trucking capacity and higher diesel cost.
Longer term, the report outlines aging and inadequate transportation infrastructure and supply chain security as the two long-term challenges for logisticians. Wilson writes that the transportation infrastructure is severely strained in some locations because of the dramatic growth in volume of freight. As for supply chain security, Wilson notes:

Like many other industry observers, Wilson argues for a holistic approach to security. She advocates end-to-end monitoring of cargo and at the same time establishing and preserving a proven chain of custody. Although companies would have to bear the costs associated with those practices, she believes that improved security would justify the expense. “Investment in state-of-the-art cargo- security technology and monitoring solutions can provide a significant return on investment, often at bargain prices considering the value of the capital that could be lost by a disruption in global container shipping,” she writes. Embracing security as a core business function will mitigate the need for invasive government practices, she adds.

Categorized as: News_, Supply Chain Management_
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Middle East logistics: high opportunity in a complex region

Logistics Management has a new article that outlines why the Middle East is a booming regiong for logisitics and supply chain services. At least, that is the conclusion of a recent study released by the research firm – Transport Intelligence.

The logistics sector has been benefited as companies invest in upstream and downstream infrastructure projects. And, other opportunities are presenting themselves from investment in construction including tourism (hotels, amenities etc), reconstruction of Iraq, and transportation projects (ports, logistics parks and airports etc). In addition, the importance of consumer markets is increasing as GDP per head soars throughout the region.

That is the key takeaway from the article and I can personally attest to that having visited the Middle East not more than a few months ago on a supply chain consulting engagement. There’s a lot of oil money flowing in the region and that is being put to work building up infrastructure of all kinds. In short the area has been booming for a few years and could concievably continue to do so for a little longer. Current events, notwithstanding, this part of the world is pretty critical to the rest of the world and if there is something that a supply chain fits in nicely with – are the critical things that power/drive the rest of the world.

Categorized as: News_, Supply Chain Management_, Logistics_
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Where the Supply Chain Planning Players are at?

Gartner Research has published its magic quadrant (nothing magical about it but its an informative quadrant though) about the relative competitive position of Supply Chain Planning software vendors for the first half of 2006.

There are three key sectors (Process Manufacturing, Discrete Manufacturing and Distribution Intensive) for which the quadrants were created. They’re available free of charge at Oracle’s site (Magic Quadrants for Supply Chain Planning) at the following links:
1. Magic Quadrant for Supply Chain Planning in Process Manufacturing Industries, 1H06
2. Magic Quadrant for Supply Chain Planning in Discrete Manufacturing Industries, 1H06
3. Magic Quadrant for Supply Chain Planning in Distribution-Intensive Industries, 1H06
What I wanted to determine from perusing these quadrants was the criteria by which certain firms’ SCP software was categorized as visionary and others as followers or laggards. Here is the summary of firms seen as visionaries (as opposed to niche players) in various segments of the SCP marketplace.

Process Manufacturing Discrete Manufacturing Distribution Intensive
Aspen i2 i2
i2 SAP SAP
Manugistics Oracle Logility
SAP
Oracle
Logility

According to the report, a visionary has to demonstrate:

  • A developing global support strategy
  • Five customer references in each targeted vertical industry
  • Differentiated vertical-industry domain expertise and unique industry-specific functionality
  • Development beyond a third vertical-industry-specific solution
  • Development support for a multi-enterprise architecture on an SOA platform
  • A targeted presence leading to influence and activity into how aspects of the market evolve

RFID ROI — Not what it seems

I was having a recent discussion over lunch with an executive from a specialty grocer out west who admittedly didn’t know what the big hoopla was about RFID. The mother of all grocers and supermarketers is into it in a big way but he didn’t know what the point of it was except maybe for pallet level or truckload level tagging. I suggested – maybe its volume throughout the entire supply chain that one surmises without accurate and up to date information, supply chain managers might feel quite out of the loop and without much control. Dr. Peter Harrop has an article RFID ROI – Not what it seems that makes several points. Here’s a sampling:

Ask someone in the street about RFID and they may say it is tagging prisoners. However, those in the industry generally talk about putting labels on pallets and cases necessitated by the commendable commands of leading U.S. retailers, which see sales increase and costs decrease as a result of their suppliers doing such tagging.

However, he says, if you follow the money and not the talk:

However, if we look at the major spend and potential spend on RFID, we get a very different picture. The global spend on RFID labels for pallets and cases alone

Archived webinar on Inventory Optimization in Electronics

An archived version of the recent webinar on Dynamic Inventory Optimization presented by the Electronics Supply Chain Association (ESCA) is available here. Registration is requied and free. The webinar will be available for a year from now. I found some of the items in the presentation especially from the Aberdeen Group as well as IBM’s DIOS group quite interesting and that makes watching the webinar well worth your while.
Some of the other documentation relating to the webinar is also available here:
1. IBM’s DIOS brochure
2. Case study of application of DIOS at a company

You can’t plan your compromises … Yes, you can.

Randy Littleson of Kinaxis on Response Management blog has a post about how firms are often kicked into “response mode” where in they’re trying to respond to the latest fire that is about to kill their customer service ratings. Isn’t it always like that or doesn’t it always feel like that? He is of the opinion, no doubt earned by consulting practice that it is virtually impossible to plan out the activities of the firm such that you can avoid/significantly mitigate the “response mode” state of affairs.

These deviations from plan are happening literally hundreds of times throughout the day in most organizations. It may be a key customer calling, a field failure that needs to be dealt with, an unexpected delay in receipt of a critical part of any number of things that “just come up.”
At the core to solving these problems is compromosing. Teams need to get together and figure out what tradeoffs and compromises need to be made on the spot to solve these types of problems….and they need to do so while weighing the impact on the rest of the business.

Well, you could if you wanted to.
Quite simply, you either have to have excess capacity built into you system (not so good idea) or have a system that operates at or near the lowest total lead time (better idea). I’m not saying that you’d be able to handle every “response mode” crisis hands down this way but a significant portion of the response mode crises ought to be mitigated by advanced planning. But that requires a different way of thinking and applying i.e. bringing in the fruits of applied queuing theory into the firm’s activities. One of the highpoints of my graduate education was putting this into practice – through Quick Response Methodology (QRM). QRM is the brainchild of Dr. Rajan Suri at the University of Wisconsin-Madison and I was part of a team that consulted with a manufacturing firm with the specific objective of reducing their lead times for spare parts.
If you’re facing any of the below:

  • Our biggest customer is demanding faster response time …
  • We provide a high degree of customization, and JIT is no longer helpful in our low-volume, high-mix environment …
  • Our shop floor has become very efficient, but it takes too long to get out a quote or process an order …
  • Our own response time is fine, but our supplier is another story …

Smarter, faster and cheaper Supply Chain Technology…

Logistics Management has an article on their website (Free registration required to view the article) which summarizes a survey of current trens with respect to SCM technology – likes, dislikes, loves and gripes. The respondents were surveyed about the type of SCM or related software that they intended to purchase/upgrade/deploy in the near future, important factors w.r.t SCM software and who in the firms made the decision to acquire SCM software. This is the kind of response that any SCM consultant or SCM software maker has to be keenly watching – hopefully not as a first source of industry trends but as a sort of secondary confirmation.
The article gives an idea about the content of their survey sample:

The final survey sample included logistics and supply chain managers from both large and small companies, with annual sales ranging from less than $49 million to $1 billion or more.

Some important takeaways (which are succintly graphed in the article as well):

1. Six types of software are most commonly used in logistics today. The most popular are warehouse management systems (WMS), used by 61 percent of respondents, followed by enterprise resource planning (ERP) at 55 percent and transportation management systems (TMS) with 34 percent. Rounding out the list are supply chain planning (32 percent), import/export management (15 percent), and yard management systems (YMS) with 10 percent.
When it comes to upgrading or purchasing software, WMS and TMS are at the top of readers’ shopping lists. Supply chain planning and ERP applications are close behind.
This year’s survey also highlighted an important trend in on-demand (“pay-as-you-go”) solutions. Some 28 percent of readers already use such systems, and 34 percent expect to purchase them within the next 12 months.
2. Ultimately, readers said, the most important reasons for purchasing supply chain software include the right features for their operations, quality of service and support, compatibility with existing solutions, and configurability. All of that is aimed at achieving one overarching objective. “The number one attribute that companies tell us they’re looking for is integration of their internal supply chain,” says John Fontanella, senior vice president and research director, supply chain services, at Aberdeen Group. “That is head and shoulders above everything else.”
3. Eighty percent of the respondents who plan to buy supply chain solutions expect to spend less than $1 million on software, training, and integration. Most are currently evaluating vendors, and a smaller percentage have already decided which vendor they’ll buy from. Respondents typically rely on a team that includes corporate management, information technology, and warehousing/distribution/logistics, among others, to make those decisions.
In exchange for their investments in supply chain software, one-third of the respondents expect a payback within 12 to 18 months.
4. Fontanella adds that a 12- to 18-month ROI is not only within reason, it has become a necessity. “It’s not an unreasonable expectation at all,” he says. “A technology vendor that can’t deliver that will be out of business.”

All of the above seems just about right except the last point. T’is all well and good to expect an ROI within a 12-18 month timeframe but to place that squarely on the shoulders of a technology vendor smacks of the COTS (Commercial Off The Shelf) problem and how firms tend to view software solutions – as a magic wand. And that is singularily unhelpful.

About me

I am Chris Jacob Abraham and I live, work and blog from Newburgh, New York. I work for IBM as a Senior consultant in the Fab PowerOps group that works around the issue of detailed Fab (semiconductor fab) level scheduling on a continual basis. My erstwhile company ILOG was recently acquired by IBM and I've joined the Industry Solutions Group there.

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